Topical Issue - Advances in Metrology and Quality Engineering
Open Access

Table 1

Empirical and posterior summary statistics for the community spread of COVID-19 pandemic using model (18). Coverage: 1‑4 March 2020 in Germany and Italy.

Time t Today's cases jt Yesterday's cases jt−1 Empirical result of ℜt Constant of integration Ct Posterior mean of ℜt Posterior median of ℜt Posterior mode of ℜt Posterior variance of ℜt Posterior SD of ℜt
(a) Community spread of COVID-19 in Germany: Early March
1 Mar 2020 13.71 6.00 5.133 4.948 5.128 5.007 1.870 1.367 0.0040
2 Mar 2020 16.29 13.71 1.859 1.953 1.869 1.908 1.076 1.037 0.2025
3 Mar 2020 20.29 16.29 2.098 2.093 2.097 2.078 0.996 0.998 0.1512
4 Mar 2020 25.57 20.29 2.158 2.124 2.160 2.125 0.857 0.926 0.1225
(b) Community spread of COVID-19 in Italy: Early March
1 Mar 2020 149.86 124.43 1.930 1.913 1.930 1.919 0.167 0.409
2 Mar 2020 222.43 149.86 2.975 2.963 2.975 2.967 0.113 0.336
3 Mar 2020 258.14 222.43 1.745 1.735 1.744 1.738 0.097 0.312
4 Mar 2020 311.43 258.14 1.938 1.930 1.938 1.933 0.080 0.284