Topical Issue - Advances in Metrology and Quality Engineering
Open Access

Table 3

Comparisons of the daily rate of infection, the overall cumulative infected population, the empiric reproduction number and the posterior averages to the reproduction number at the end of the various time periods with and without the United Kingdom protective measures.

  No measures applied First round of lockdown applied across the UK First round of lockdown measures lifted International travel quarantine applied Primary aged children return to school post lockdown Non-essential retail reopened following guidelines Travel corridors opens and pubs, restaurants and bars reopened
 






Time interval (ti, tj) Mar. 1‑7 Mar. 8‑22 Mar. 23‑31 Apr. 1‑15 Apr. 16‑30 May 1‑10 May 11‑21 May 22‑31 June 1‑14 June 15‑30 July 1‑23
Daily change in infections 21.7% 16.5% 8.3% −3.4% −0.1% −6.5% −1.9% −4.5% −1.0% −5.5% 1.5%
Infections at tj−1 28.29 673.57 2555.57 4586.00 4614.57 3659.00 2624.14 1692.00 1016.43 697.29 632.71
Infections at tj 34.43 784.57 2767.00 4428.29 4610.14 3419.86 2574.14 1615.57 1006.71 658.86 642.14
Cumulative infections 271 7736 29,681 97,052 167,150 206,234 235,727 254,390 270,285 284,888 297,659
Empirical result of ℜt 1.983 1.763 1.397 0.825 0.995 0.662 0.904 0.769 0.952 0.717 1.074
Posterior probability of ℜt ≤ 1 13.0% 9.80% 9.9% 77.5% 51.4% 89.9% 62.8% 72.1% 53.3% 63.9% 43.6%
Posterior mean of ℜt 1.984 1.764 1.404 0.813 0.990 0.650 0.894 0.779 0.973 0.846 1.121
Posterior median of ℜt 1.986 1.773 1.407 0.814 0.991 0.648 0.895 0.768 0.959 0.800 1.098
Posterior mode of ℜt 2.015 1.793 1.413 0.813 0.989 0.649 0.900 0.760 0.950 0.705 1.077

  Mandatory face coverings in shops across England. “Rule of six” applied in England. Increased fines up to £10,000 added shortly afterwards. Tighter restrictions are put in place across the UK, with pubs ordered to close at 10pm. A new three-tier system for COVID restrictions in England. Preparing for second round of lockdown in Nov 2020.
 




Time interval (ti, tj) July 24–31 Aug. 1–15 Aug. 16–31 Sep. 1–13 Sep. 14–18 Sep. 19–21 Sep 22–30 Oct 1–11 Oct 12–20 Oct 21–29 Oct 30–31

Daily change in infections 1.90% 8.40% 8.3% 8.7% 2.1% 2.3% 5.5% 2.1% 4.1% −1.3% 2.5%
Infections at tj−1 542.29 970.43 1164.43 2760.86 3285.71 3597.71 5769.71 15,504.71 16,956.14 22,147.57 22,124.71
Infections at tj 552.71 1051.71 1260.71 3001.43 3353.71 3679.00 6086.43 15,832.43 17,646.29 21,863.71 22,678.14
Cumulative infections 302,301 316,367 334,467 365,174 381,614 394,257 446,156 590,844 741,212 942,275 989,745
Empirical result of ℜt 1.095 1.402 1.397 1.418 1.102 1.112 1.267 1.105 1.199 0.936 1.124
Posterior probability of ℜt ≤ 1 42.10% 21.40% 19.6% 8.0% 36.1% 34.1% 9.8% 40.4% 30.7% 58.2% 36.3%
Posterior mean of ℜt 1.157 1.4 1.395 1.426 1.099 1.109 1.274 1.099 1.195 0.927 1.118
Posterior median of ℜt 1.129 1.404 1.400 1.429 1.101 1.111 1.275 1.100 1.198 0.927 1.121
Posterior mode of ℜt 1.099 1.418 1.413 1.434 1.107 1.116 1.109 1.109 1.207 0.933 1.128